NL Central 2012 Preview

Posted: April 2, 2012 by Kodi in MLB

Who is going to win the NL Central this year I can safely say it won’t be the Houston Astros

With 1B Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder leaving the division this has officially become Joey Votto’s world

After the Ryan Braun winning his drug suspension appeal it looks like the Brewers may be the front-runners . . .

Chicago Cubs

Another year passes and the Chicago Cubs are still in search of their first World Series title since 1908. The team from the north side of Chi-town finished a dismal 20 games under .500 with a 71-91 record and the organization knew big changes were coming during the off-season. The Cubs brought in Theo Epstein from the Boston Red Sox to become Chicago’s new President of baseball operations. Epstein brought Jed Hoyer with him from Beantown to become the Cubs’ new General Manager. Chicago also has a new manager in former Brewers coach Dale Sveum. The revamped front office in Chicago is hoping to bring a World Championship back to Wrigley and Epstein is hoping to break the two longest droughts in baseball history.

If there is one shining glimmer of hope for the Chicago Cubs it is their young start SS Starlin Castro who led the National League in hits. Castro is going to become the face of this franchise as he is a young player with extravagant talent. The Cubs made some moves this winter dumping off some of their grizzled veterans in exchange for some young prospects. Chicago is making moves for the future and Cubs fans are going to have to wait yet another year before they see any turnaround. 3B Aramis Ramirez left the team and signed with a division rival but the Cubs brought in Ian Stewart to replace him. Realistically there aren’t many moves the Cubs can make in the free agency that will immediately upgrade their offense, unless they could have landed Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder.

It wasn’t long ago when Carlos Zambrano was the anchor of the Cubs starting rotation but the character issues finally forced Chicago to ship him away. Chicago had just one starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 and that was Matt Garza who was 10-10 with a 3.32 earned run average. The Cubs pitching as a whole had a 4.33 ERA which ranked 14th out of 16 teams in the National League. It didn’t help the Cubs much when they were able to get a lead for their Closer Carlos Marmol because he was about as reliable as a used car salesman’s guarantee. Marmol was solid on the road posting a 1.24 WHIP and 3.06 ERA but there was something about the crowds at Wrigley Field that led to his 4.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. There isn’t going to be a pitcher that comes out of the woodwork to push the Cubs into contention, unless you really like Paul Maholm,

The Chicago Cubs will find themselves toward the bottom of the NL Central yet again and there’s no hope in sight. The Cubs are more than a few moves away so for the time being Cubbies fans should enjoy Starlin Castro while they have him and hope that the farm system can improve some hot young talent like Anthony Rizzo and Brett Jackson. If that happens then the Cubs could be right in the middle of things for the 2014-15 season. The Cubs aren’t just a bad team, they also lose to bad teams. Last season 46 of their 91 losses came from teams with losing records. Until the Cubs can become the best of the lousiest they are going to dwell in the basement amongst all the other crappy teams.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: OF David DeJesus, OF Dave Sappelt, 3B Ian Stewart, LHP Travis Wood, RHP Chris Volstad, 1B Anthony Rizzo

Departures: OF Tyler Colvin, LHP John Grabow, C Koyie Hill, IF D.J. LeMahieu, RHP Rodrigo Lopez, LHP Sean Marshall, RHP Ramon Ortiz, 1B Carlos Pena, 3B Aramis Ramirez, RHP Carlos Zambrano

Projected Lineup:

1 RF David DeJesus

2 2B Darwin Barney

3 SS Starlin Castro

4 1B Bryan LaHair

5 LF Alfonso Soriano

6 3B Ian Stewart

7 CF Marlon Byrd

8 C Geovany Soto


C/1B Steve Clevenger

Util Jeff Baker

IF/OF Blake DeWitt

Util Joe Mather

OF Reed Johnson

Projected Rotation:

1 RHP Ryan Dempster

2 RHP Matt Garza

3 RHP Jeff Samardzija

4 RHP Chris Volstad

5 LHP Paul Maholm


Closer: RHP Carlos Marmol

Setup: RHP Ketty Wood, RHP Rafael Dolis

Middle Relievers: LHP James Russell, RHP Manuel Corpas, RHP Shawn Camp

Long Reliever: RHP Lendy Castillo

Key Prospects:

OF Brett Jackosn

1B Anthony Rizzo

RHP Trey McNutt

RHP Dillon Maples

SS/3B Javier Baez

1B Dan Vogelbach

Cincinnati Reds

It was just two years ago that the Dusty Baker managed Reds won 91 games and worked their way towards the playoffs. They burst on to the seen quickly and last season they fizzled away like a soda left open overnight. They were able to win just 79 games in 2011 and found themselves in the middle of the NL Central race. Cincinnati is hoping that they are able to bounce back again this year and make it to the postseason where they haven’t won a game since 1995. With all the movement that has taken place in the NL Central over the past few months it seems that the Reds have worked their way into being mentioned as one of the favorites to win this division.

The Cincinnati Reds blew on to the scene in 2010 because of a huge year from the eventual NL MVP 1B Joey Votto. Votto had another solid year last year recording career highs in hits, doubles and walks but hit 8 less HR’s, 29, and 10 less RBI, 103, than during his MVP season. RF Jay Bruce had great season in 2011 hitting 32 HR’s and 97 RBI but he and CF Drew Stubbs combined for 343 strikeouts between the two of them.  The Reds hit the 2nd most HR’s in the NL last season while scoring the 2nd most runs and offensively they are one of the best in the league. That’s probably why they didn’t go out and make too many drastic moves. There’s biggest offensive acquisition during the winter break was well traveled veteran OF Ryan Ludwick. The Reds biggest question this season will be how well SS Zack Cozart holds up and if C Devin Mesoraco can come out of his shell.

The reason that the Reds saw such a difference in results from 2010 to 2011 was the reliability of their pitching staff. The starting rotation had just one pitcher who recorded double digit wins, Mike Leake, but they were plagued by injury. Johnny Cueto pitched great when he could stay on the mound but three of Cincy’s starting 5 had ERA’s north of 4.43. Edinson Volquez has been the Reds’ Ace ever since being dealt from Texas in exchange for Josh Hamilton but he is no longer pitching in Cincinnati. The Reds traded with the Padres for P Mat Latos and Cincinnati is hoping that Cueto and Latos will be the 1-2 punch they are so desperate for. Long time Closer Franky Cordero left the team in the offseason and the Reds thought they found his replacement in  ex-Phillies reliever Ryan Madson. Madson however will miss the entire 2012 season after some elbow tenderness became the need to undergo ligament replacement surgery.

Cincinnati is an intriguing team because they have so much potential but it’s whether or not Manager Dusty Baker can do his job and get the best out of his players. If the Reds play to their full abilities it is hard to argue against them winning the NL Central but they have already been bitten by the injury bug and the season hasn’t even started. The Reds are going to score runs but this season will come down to how many runs their pitching staff allows. Cincy has one of the stingiest defenses in the MLB but it doesn’t work when you allow the 2nd most HR’s allowed in the NL while walking the 3rd most. The Reds need to get their pitching staff together and if they are able to do that this year they’ll be at the top, however I think they are still a year away and will finish in 2nd or 3rd.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: P Mat Latos, P Ryan Madson, P Sean Marshall, OF Ryan Ludwick, P Jeff Francis, IF Wilson Valdez

Departures: P Francisco Cordero, P Edinson Volquez, C Ramon Hernandez, 1B Yonder Alonso, P Dave Sappelt. P Travis Wood, P Jeremy Horst

Projected Lineup:

1 2B Brandon Phillips

2 SS Zack Cozart

3 1B Joey Votto

4 3B Scott Rolen

5 RF Jay Bruce

6 LF Ryan Ludwick

7 CF Drew Stubbs

8 C Ryan Hanigan


OF Chris Heisey

C Devin Mesoraco

3B Juan Francisco

IF Wilson Valdez

IF Miguel Cairo

Projected Rotation:

1 RHP Johnny Cueto

2 RHP Mat Latos

3 RHP Bronson Arroyo

4 RHP Mike Leake

5 RHP Homer Bailey


Closer: LHP Sean Marshall

Setup: LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Jose Arrendondo

Middle Relievers: RHP Logan Ondrusek, RHP Sam LeCure, LHP Bill Bray

Long Reliever: LHP Jeff Francis

Key Prospects:

C Devin Mesoraco

SS Billy Hamilton

RHP Daniel Corcino

RHP Robert Stephenson

OF Yorman Rodriguez

1B Neftali Soto

Houston Astros

The glory years of Bagwell, Biggio, Berkman and Oswalt seems like it was a lifetime ago as the Houston Astros struggle to no embarrass the MLB. The biggest news for the Astros in the offseason was that Commissioner Bud Selig and the MLB were realigning the league and this would be Houston’s last season in the NL Central. They will be playing in the American League west starting in 2013 and the Astros are hoping they can break into the AL with some steam. Last year they won just 56 games and at times looked like they wouldn’t even compete against certain Minor League competition. The Astros finished the season a whopping 40 games behind the NL Central Champion Milwaukee Brewers.

Despite the Astros terrible record in 2011 they weren’t the worst offensive team in the National League. They had the 3rd most hits and the 4th best batting average for a team in the NL but they were 2nd to last in HR’s and dead last in walks. So they were able to get on base but they weren’t able to always turn those hits into runs. They were led in hits, doubles, HR’s, RBI and BB’s by a 35 year old horse. El Caballo Carlos Lee has been a staple in the Astros offense for years but his best days are behind him and no team should brag about being led by a player who’s closer to 40 than 30. To be completely honest it wouldn’t surprise me if Lee is the thoroughbred that Houston runs into the ground until they have to put him down because there isn’t much else on this team. Jed Lowrie???

The Houston Astros don’t have a prolific offense and when you combine that with some of the worst pitching in all of baseball you end up with a team that wins 56 games. The ‘stros had a league worst 4.51 team ERA, allowed the 3rd most hits, most runs, most HR’s and 2nd most walks in the National League. Wandy Rodriguez’s 11-11 record was the best on the team and his 3.49 ERA was the best in Houston’s rotation but he is in no way an Ace on any pitching staff other than the Astros. Not that Houston had many opportunities as they won very few games they recorded just 25 team saves. Their Closer last season was Mark Melancon who had 20 of those 25 although he will be replaced by former SP Brett Myers after departing from the organization.

It doesn’t really matter who closes games for the Houston Astros because there likely won’t be many more opportunities this year than there was last. There are always a few bad baseball teams year after year but very rarely do you have two of them in the same division but with the Cubs and Astros in the NL Central the rest of the division has the pleasure of pummeling less talented teams. Houston is in full blown rebuilding mode and hopefully they can get back to their winning ways but this season the only race they will be a part of is the race to the bottom of the NL Central. Who will get there first? I got my money on the Astros.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: OF Jack Cust, C Chris Snyder, LHP Zach Dukeon, SS Jed Lowrie, OF Travis Buck, P Paul Clemens, P Fernando Rodriguez, P Kyle Weiland, OF Jason Bourgeois

Departures: 2B Clint Barmes, P Mark Melancon, OF Jason Michaels, OF Hunter Pence

Projected Lineup:

1 CF Jordan Schafer

2 SS Jed Lowrie

3 LF J.D. Martinez

4 1B Carlos Lee

5 RF Brian Bogusevic

6 3B Chris Johnson

7 C Jason Castro

8 2B Jose Altuve


C Chris Snyder

IF Matt Downs

IF Marwin Gonzalez

OF Travis Buck

OF J.B. Shuck

Projected Rotation:

1 LHP Wandy Rodriguez

2 RHP Bud Norris

3 LHP J.A. Happ

4 RHP Jordan Lyles

5 RHP Kyle Weiland


Closer: RHP Brett Myers

Setup: RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Wilton Lopez

Middle Relievers: RHP David Carpenter, RHP Henry Sosa, LHP Wesley Wright

Long Reliever: RHP Lucas Harrell

Key Prospects:

1B Jonathan Singleton

OF George Springer

P Jarred Cosart

P Paul Clemens

SS Jonathan Villar

P Mike Foltynewicz

Milwaukee Brewers

It’s hard to think that the Milwaukee Brewers were a handful of games under .500 after the first week of May because they finished the season 83-47. They won a franchise record 96 games and the best home record in all of baseball on the way to winning the NL Central. They squeaked past the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS and would eventually lose to the St. Louis Cardinals 4 games to 2 to finish their memorable 2011 season. Milwaukee knew going into October that it was likely the last time the Brew Crew would see 1B Prince Fielder suit up in a Brewers uniform. It didn’t help when OF Ryan Braun was surrounded by controversy when he allegedly tested positive for performance enhancing drugs and would face a 50 game suspension.

Behind Fielder and Braun the Milwaukee Brewers led the National League in HR’s on their way to scoring 721 runs. Prince left for Detroit and Braun looked like he was going to be gone for 1/3 of the season but the Hebrew Hammer became the first person to overturn a positive drug test. You can check out my take on it in the MLB archives but to make a long story short the legal process reigns supreme. The Brewers were a very powerful team but lacked speed and defense which played into their ultimate demise. The Brewers hope that an upgrade at SS by getting Alex Gonzalez and 3B Aramis Ramirez in hopes of solidifying the left side of the diamond. Although Rickie Weeks is a powerful 2B he has become a liability in the field and he isn’t the only one. Milwaukee will be fielding a similar team to last season despite having Fielder’s big bat in the middle of the lineup.

The Brewers have always been successful offensively but I would argue that it was their pitching that got them so far into the postseason. All five starters from the Brewers rotation last season recorded 11 or more wins and besides Chris Narveson their ERA’s were south of 3.83. The 1-2 punch of Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo went 33-16 with a combined ERA of 3.65. The Brewers organization decided not to fix what wasn’t broken and all 5 starters are back in the rotation this season. Closer John Axford and his incredible moustache came out of the middle of nowhere to record 46 Saves. Axford pitched 73.2 innings and had a ERA of just 1.95 and Milwaukee still has K-Rod (Francisco Rodrgiuez) in the setup role.

The Milwaukee Brewers are hoping to continue last year’s success into this season but this time they will have to rely on stingy pitching and less on their powerful offense. It’s not to say that the Milwaukee Brewers won’t score runs but this season they are likely to have a few close games. I think that the Brewers are the team to beat in the NL Central and if they aren’t bitten hard by the injury bug this roster looks like a solid possibility to repeat as division champs. Last season the Brewers struggled to keep key players healthy for the entire season and one of those players, OF Corey Hart, required knee surgery already this spring. The Brewers hope that there isn’t more to come but injuries are part of baseball and Milwaukee will have to see how their bench can step up.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: RHP Jose Veras, SS Alex Gonzalez, 3B Aramis Ramirez, IF Jeff Bianchi, RHP Wily Peralta, OF Corey Patterson, RHP Brandon Kintzler, SS Cesar Izturis

Departures: 1B Prince Fielder, IF Craig Counsell, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, 1B/3B Casey McGehee, OF Mark Kotsay, OF Jerry Hairston Jr.

Projected Lineup:

1 2B Rickie Weeks

2 CF Nyjer Morgan

3 LF Ryan Braun

4 3B Aramis Ramirez

5 RF Corey Hart*

6 1B Mat Gamel

7 SS Alex Gonzalez

8 C Jonathan Lucroy


C George Kottaras

IF Brooks Conrad

IF Cesar Izturis

OF Norichika Aoki

OF Carlos Gomez

Projected Rotation:

1 RHP Yovani Gallardo

2 RHP Zach Greinke

3 LHP Randy Wolf

4 RHP Shaun Marcum*

5 LHP Chris Narveson


Closer: John Axford

Setup: RHP Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Veras

Middle Reliever: RHP Kameron Loe, LHP Manny Parra, RHP Tim Dillard

Long Reliever: RHP Marco Estrada

Key Prospects:

RHP Wily Peralta

LHP Jed Bradley

RHP Taylor Jungmann

2B Scooter Gennett

OF Logan Schafer

IF Taylor Green

RHP Tyler Thornburg

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have lived in the basement of the NL Central for nearly two centuries as the organization rides a 19 season long losing streak. The last time the Bucs won more than 79 games was when Jim Leyland was managing, Barry Bonds was playing in the outfield and Tim Wakefield was in the starting rotation. Since that 1992 season when the Pirates lost in the NLCS to the Atlanta Braves in 7 games it is hard for Pirates fans to have imagined what the future had in store for them. They were just 1 inning away from going to the World  Series but Doug Drabek blew a 2-0 lead and the Braves rallied to score 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th. The Pirates have started to turn the corner after a 105 loss season in 2010, Pittsburgh actually found themselves in first place in the middle of July! They fizzled away in the second half of the season and finished with a 72-90 record but they did finish 4th in the division rather than dead last for the first time since 2006.

Pittsburgh clearly has a lot of problems within the organization because it doesn’t take a MLB team 20 seasons to turn a losing team into a contender. The Bucs seem to have a revolving door on their great young prospects, they bring them in chew them up and spit them out. It doesn’t matter whether or not those players are traded away, driven deep into the minor leagues or inundated by injury. That being said it will be interesting to see what happens with CF Andrew McCutchen who is by far the Pirates best player. He led the team in HR’s with 23,  RBI with 89, stolen bases with 23 and walks with 89 and was the glimmer of hope Pittsburgh fans were hoping for. If Pittsburgh wants to improve even more this year they are going to need to get a little more out of LF Jose Tabata, 2B Neil Walker and 3B Pedro Alvarez.

The Pirates pitching wasn’t very good last season and the staff allowed the most hits in the National League while posting a team ERA above 4.00. They had just two pitchers with double digit wins, Charlie Morton and Kevin Correia, but they combined for a 22-21 record and a ERA of 4.33. Pittsburgh knew that they needed help so they went out and traded some of their prospects for ex-Yankees starting pitcher A.J. Burnett. The luck of the Bucs shouldn’t surprise anyone but when Burnett was put on the Disabled List because he bunted a ball off of his face you can understand what type of curse is lurking in Pittsburgh. They do have one of the best Closers in the game with Joel Hanrahan who recorded Saves in 40 games last year while posting a 1.048 WHIP and 1.83 ERA.

I hate to break it to Pirates fans but they are staring a 20 season losing streak in the eye and it is likely to happen this year despite a handful of miracles. The Pirates have some pieces in place but whenever they try to make improvements the baseball Gods come down and strike their star pitcher in the face with a ball that came off of his own bat. If that doesn’t explain just how much bad luck surrounds the Pirates I don’t know what will. Luckily for the Pirates I there are two other very terrible teams in this division and they may likely not finish in the basement of the NL Central.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: P Tim Wood, P A.J. Burnett, C Rod Barajas, SS/2B Clint Barmes, P Erik Bedard, IF Yamaico Navarro, OF Nate McLouth, 3B Casey McGehee, P Jo-Jo Reyes

Departures: OF/C Ryan Doumit, 1B/3B Derrek Lee, OF Ryan Ludwick, P Paul Maholm, SS/2B Ronny Cedeno, C Chris Snyder,

Projected Lineup:

1 LF Alex Presley

2 RF Jose Tabata

3 CF Andrew McCutchen

4 2B Neil Walker

5 1B Garrett Jones

6 C Rod Barajas

7 3B Pedro Alvarez

8 SS Clint Barmes


C Michael McKenry

1B/3B Casey McGehee

IF Josh Harrison

Util Yamaico Navarro

OF Nate McLouth

Projected Rotation:

1 LHP Erik Bedard

2 RHP A.J. Burnett*

3 RHP Jeff Karstens

4 RHP James McDonald

5 RHP Kevin Correia


Closer: RHP Joel Hanrahan

Setup: RHP Evan Meek, RHP Jason Grilli

Middle Relievers: LHP Daniel Moskos, RHP Chris Resop, LHP Tony Watson

Long Reliever: RHP Chris Leroux

Key Prospects:

RHP Gerrit Cole

RHP Jameson Taillon

OF Josh Bell

OF Starling Marte

RHP Luis Heredia

OF Robbie Grossman

St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals are the defending World Series Champions after defeating the Texas Rangers in 6 games last fall. It is the 11th World Series Championship for the Cardinals franchise and the 2nd in 6 seasons. Led by longtime Manager Tony LaRussa and future Hall of Fame 1B Albert Pujols St. Louis was able to win it all despite multiple injuries and trailing by more than 10 games near the end of August. The Red Birds were able to win 23 of their last 31 games to push themselves into playoff contention but they wouldn’t have made it as the Wild Card without an epic collapse by the Atlanta Braves. The Cards beat the Phillies and Brewers in the NLDS and NLCS for their opportunity to play in the franchises 22nd World Series.  The St. Louis Cardinals that enter Busch Stadium III in 2012 are going to be a completely different team without Pujols under Manager Mike Matheny.

The Cardinals were a team filled with veterans and St. Louis had just one starter in their lineup under the age of 28. They got great production out of RF Lance Berkman who hit 31 HR’s and knocked in 94 RBI who made up for Matt Holliday’s injury riddled season. Albert had a down year with his 37 HR’s and 99 RBI but St. Louis fans are no longer able to rely on The Machine. Pujols left the team for nearly ¼ $billion when he signed with the Angels in the offseason and left the organization scurrying to find a replacement. The Cardinals are hoping that a healthy Holliday and the newly acquired Carlos Beltran can pick them up by the bootstraps. World Series MVP 3B David Freese was incredible during the postseason and Cards fans are hoping that momentum can continue into the 2012 season.

The Cardinals pitching staff was dealt a major blow before last season that Adam Wainwright would not be available for the year but St. Louis had 4 starters who had more than 11 wins. They made a mid-season trade to acquire P Edwin Jackson who gave the Cards a boost going into the playoffs. This year the Cardinals are entering the season without Chris Carpenter who is out indefinitely after a bulging disc in his neck causing nerve irritation in his shoulder. That injury made room for a great young prospect to get his chance in the rotation, Lance Lynn, and the Cards are hoping he can impress. St. Louis’ closer situation was interesting throughout the season and they actually had 8 different pitchers record at least 1 Save. Fernando Salas led the team with 24 Saves but going into the season it looks like Jason Motte will get the nod in the 9th inning.

The Cardinals still have a lot of key pieces in place to make a run at repeating as World Series Champions but they are still a few games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in my mind. The Cards and Reds could very well be fighting for a Wild Card position once again in 2012 but they both may get in after Bud Selig expanded the number of playoff teams. It is going to be difficult for St. Louis fans to see their team take the field without Pujols at 1B and LaRussa on the bench but it’s not like this team won’t be competitive. If they can improve their pitching numbers this season it will help a lineup that is likely to dip in offensive production. St. Louis is likely to be in 2nd or 3rd in the NL Central and it will be interesting to see how the season pans out for the defending Champions.

2012 Transactions:

Acquisitions: P J.C. Romero, OF Carlos Beltran, P R.J. Swindle, Util Eugenio Velez, P Scott Linebrink, OF Andrew Brown

Departures: P Edwin Jackson, 1B Albert Pujols, IF Nick Punto, P Arthur Rhodes, P Octavio Dotel, OF Corey Patterson, IF Ryan Theriot

Projected Lineup:

1 2B Tyler Greene

2 RF Carlos Beltran

3 LF Matt Holliday

4 1B Lance Berkman

5 3B David Freese

6 C Yadier Molina

7 CF Jon Jay

8 SS Rafael Furcal


C Tony Cruz

3B Matt Carpenter

OF Erik Komatsu

IF/OF Skip Schumaker

IF Daniel Descalso

Projected Rotation:

1 RHP Kyle Lohse

2 LHP Jaime Garcia

3 RHP Adam Wainwright

4 RHP Jake Westbrook

5 RHP Lance Lynn


Closer: RHP Jason Motte

Setup: RHP Fernando Salas, LHP Marc Rzepczynski

Middle Relievers: RHP Scott Linebrink, RHP Kyle McClellan, LHP J.C. Romero

Long Reliever: RHP Mitchell Boggs

Key Prospects:

RHP Shelby Miller

OF Oscar Taveras

RHP Carlos Martinez

2B Kolten Wong

RHP Tyrell Jenkins

1B Matt Adams



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